According to the National Center for Education Statistics, colleges and universities received nearly 54% more applicants in 2024 than in 2014. In the wake of the “crisis of faith” in higher ed and the enrollment cliff, this statistic is pretty promising, right?
The thing is, when you drill down into that stat, applicants don’t mean enrollments. Enrollments grew only 8% in that same time period.
Recently, my colleague, The Parish Group’s AVP of Enrollment Strategies, Dr. Leah Beth Hubbard, explored why application growth alone isn’t a sign of enrollment health and shouldn’t be the focus of an enrollment strategy.
That got me thinking about the other side of this story—the students.
Why are students applying to so many colleges and universities in the first place?
As I look back on my conversations with students and industry research, what’s become clear to me is that application growth is driven less by increased interest in higher education overall and more by expanded access systems and financial uncertainty. It’s a conversation admissions offices should be having.
The Age of Access
In the past 10 years, it’s never been easier to apply to colleges. The Common App has exploded in popularity as colleges try to attract more applicants. More than 1,000 institutions use the Common App, including Ivy Leagues, public universities, and private institutions—and students can fill out one application and instantly apply to 20 colleges or universities.
Even now, the Common App’s Direct Admissions program offers students guaranteed admission based on their academic profile.
And we can’t forget the rise in test-optional policies from a few years back—more than 1,700 institutions went test-optional or test-blind in the Fall 2020 admissions cycle.
So with expanded access comes more applications. This explains the how, but not necessarily the why.
Students are Shopping for a Price They Can’t See
I’ve interviewed many students during my time at The Parish Group. From public universities and private colleges to HSIs, HBCUs, art schools, and STEM-focused institutions, I continue to hear a similar story emerge.
Students don’t know what college will actually cost until they’re admitted.
It’s not like buying a car, booking a flight, or purchasing concert tickets. Sure, there may be annoying fees that jack the price up (I’m side-eyeing you, TicketMaster), but at least those appear before we hit submit.
Higher education doesn’t typically provide a final price upfront. Students may know the published tuition rate, but increasingly, they’re realizing that very few people actually pay that amount.
Over the past several decades, discounting has become a critical component of enrollment and financial aid strategy. Institutions use scholarships, grants, and aid packages to attract students, shape incoming classes, and optimize enrollment outcomes. From an institutional perspective, this approach makes sense. It allows colleges and universities to remain competitive while meeting enrollment goals and supporting students with varying levels of financial need.
The challenge is that students are starting to become aware of this—that the sticker price is rarely the actual price.
And because financial aid packages vary significantly from one institution to another (even among schools with similar tuition rates), students often have no reliable way to compare costs until they’ve completed the admissions process.
As a result, students are forced to make a major purchasing decision without access to the information they need most.
So they respond logically. They apply broadly.
Not because they can realistically envision themselves attending 20 different institutions (major kudos to whoever can). Not because they are indecisive. And not because they are trying to make admissions offices’ lives more difficult, though it may at times feel that way.
They’re applying for information.
To some level, students aren’t applying to 20 colleges. They’re applying to 20 financial aid offers.
For many families, the admissions decision is only half the equation. The real question is whether enrollment is financially possible once the aid package arrives.
Viewed through that lens, the increase in application volume begins to make much more sense.
Applying Broadly Feels Fiscally Responsible
Applying broadly may seem excessive. But for some families, it’s the responsible thing to do, especially if they can grit their teeth through all the application fees.
The college search process has become increasingly high-stakes. Families are being asked to make what may be one of the largest financial investments of their lives while simultaneously trying to predict a rapidly changing job market (hi AI!), evaluate institutional value, and navigate an admissions landscape that often feels opaque.
Many are worried about affordability, or concerned about whether their student will be admitted to their top-choice institution. Some are simply trying to ensure their child has options if circumstances change. In an environment filled with uncertainty, applying to more schools can feel less like overkill and more like insurance.
Parents and Guardians are Also Recommending Broadly Applying
Another recurring theme from my interviews with students: the parental advice to keep options open.
Families want reassurance that there is a backup plan…or several backup plans. But the challenge is that this mindset can quickly escalate.
If five applications provide options, wouldn’t ten be even better? If 10 schools create flexibility, wouldn’t 20 provide even more security?
Before long, students find themselves applying to institutions they know very little about, simply because eliminating an option feels riskier than adding another one.
In my conversations, the type of student didn’t really matter. First-generation students wanted to maximize their financial aid opportunities to make higher education affordable. Students from higher-income families often assumed they wouldn’t qualify for significant need-based aid, making merit awards and institutional pricing all the more important. Different circumstances, same outcome: they expanded their application pools in search of greater financial clarity.
And when affordability remains unclear until after admission decisions are released, these attitudes become even more understandable. Families know that a student’s final college list may ultimately be determined less by preference and more by financial aid packages. For many families, the fear isn’t choosing the wrong college. It’s not having enough choices when decision time arrives.
High-School Vanity Metrics are Also Part of the Story
Students and parents aren’t the only ones with the “apply everywhere” mindset.
Just as colleges and universities celebrate growth in applications, many high schools have their own enrollment-related metrics that serve as points of pride. I’ve frequently seen announcements highlighting a graduating class’s total scholarship dollars earned, the number of college acceptances received, or admissions to highly selective institutions.
These achievements are worth celebrating. Students work hard for these opportunities, and counselors often do thankless work to help get them there. Not to mention all the letters of recommendation high school teachers have to write (shout-out to Mrs. Sandifer from Woodward Academy—you made math less detestable).
But these metrics also unintentionally reinforce the narrative that more applications equal more success. In her aforementioned blog on the metric higher ed gets wrong, The Parish Group’s AVP of Enrollment Strategy, Dr. Leah Beth Hubbard, stated that when higher ed institutions do this, it’s 100% a vanity metric.
It’s a vanity metric for high schools, too.
A student who applies to 15 schools appears to have more options than a student who applies to five. A graduating class that earns $1 million in scholarship offers sounds more impressive than one that earns $500,000. A school that can report hundreds or even thousands of college acceptances creates a compelling story for prospective families. And for private schools, that can make their rising tuition costs justifiable.
The challenge, of course, is that these numbers can sometimes obscure reality.
Students don’t attend 15 colleges. They attend one.
And while scholarship totals make for impressive headlines, the amount ultimately awarded and accepted is often far smaller than the cumulative figures being reported. A student receiving multiple merit awards from different institutions can use only one.
Yet the emphasis on bigger numbers persists because the numbers themselves are easy to understand and easy to celebrate.
Taken together, colleges seeking larger applicant pools, families seeking financial certainty, and high schools celebrating application and acceptance volume all contribute to the same outcome: students submitting more applications than ever before. The irony is that while all of these stakeholders are trying to create opportunity, the result can sometimes add more complexity and uncertainty for the student making the final decision.
What This Means for Higher Ed
Colleges and universities feel the effects of this behavior throughout the enrollment funnel.
Larger applicant pools can create the appearance of growing demand, but they also make it more difficult to distinguish genuine interest from exploratory interest. Students may enthusiastically engage with an institution…or simply wait to see what the financial aid package looks like.
As students cast wider nets, institutions face increasing challenges predicting enrollment outcomes, understanding student intent, and forecasting yield with confidence.
But perhaps the more important takeaway is this: the growth in applications may be less a reflection of student ambition and more a reflection of student uncertainty.
Not only will they be admitted, but can they afford it?
Will the institution rightfully prepare them for the real world?
Is the real world even worth preparing for through secondary education?
These are the questions driving student behavior.
In my experience, financial uncertainty sits at the center of nearly all of them.
To higher ed’s credit, I do see many institutions working towards creating greater transparency. Net price calculators have improved. Financial aid communication has become more sophisticated. Some colleges are experimenting with earlier estimates and simplified cost conversations.
But until students can confidently understand what college is likely to cost before investing significant time and money into the application process, they will continue to behave like rational consumers.
They will keep their options open.
And perhaps that’s the real lesson hidden within the application boom. Students aren’t necessarily telling us they want more choices. They may be telling us they need more clarity.
Application growth is only valuable if you understand what’s driving it. If you’re trying to make sense of shifting student behavior, improve yield forecasting, or build a more student-centered enrollment strategy, The Parish Group can help.
